Russian President put before a choice: to abandon support for the separatists and lose or maintain them and start a war
Profile | 05.07.2014
Minister of Defence of People’s Republic of Donetsk Igor Gunmen cries for help and support. Ukrainian army destroys militias and knocks them out of the cities, villages and strongholds. Russia and showed no overt support breakaway Novorossia, possibly because of the EU sanctions and the United States, perhaps from unwillingness to open military conflict with Ukraine. This indecision and half-hearted attitude may strike the Russian authorities and personally by Putin, according to political analysts, conspiracy theorists and Eurasians.
Alexander Dugin, leader of the International Eurasian Movement:
"Anyway, Russia and Ukraine will join the war. This inevitably geopolitically. That the war will take place, practically no one is independent. Depends – when and under what conditions starting. And as soon as the war starts, followed by sanctions. Sanctions as inevitable as the war itself.
The first option – it starts now with a strong presence in the New Russia (DNI and LC). Further sanctions. And the rest of the war as a war. Where to stay? Where to stay. Where either see fit. As in any war.
The second option – it starts later, when the junta breaks the resistance of the DNI and LC and launch an attack on the Crimea.
And again: the war as war. And again, stay there, where to stay or see fit to stop. Again sanctions.
War is inevitable, as there Crimea. Moscow may Novorossia pass, but can not escape from the war. War overtake us, as in fact it is already underway.
Is there an alternative to avoid war? Yes. Play it without starting, the white flag now. For this it is necessary to destabilize the situation in Russia, to begin the process of overthrowing Putin. And set it on the fifth and sixth columns in Russia. By the way, almost did Gorbachev in 1989-1991-m, and Yeltsin in 1996 (Khasavyurt peace). Hence, in such self-destruction is nothing extraordinary: our political and economic elite – the same as then. Not similar, but personally the same. Fifth Column sharpens teeth. Sixth actively and harmoniously merges Putin, urging him not to go to war now. Do not go to war now means start it tomorrow, much worse starting conditions (protection of the Crimea, which nobody in the world believes Russian) – West Crimea and Novorossia phenomenon of one legal order: Russia illegally occupied territory of a neighboring sovereign state.
Putin ranges. These oscillations become pathological. He begins to change himself. But this whole calculation – because of fear of sanctions (the second wave) is required to gain time and to allow the junta to win Novorossia. Then Crimea. Russia will be forced to fight, despite all the appeals "not to give themselves up to the war." Well, well, go on, "not to involve themselves." Strictly to the Crimea. A further fifth column will offer the same logic to return Crimea. And again, that there was no war. Before Makarevich and Ganapolskaya apologize. Putin hand over power to a Democratic president, and also apologize (for all), as Yeltsin. Unlike? But what is happening now, is just such a scenario. Once appointed Putin as his successor Institute of Contemporary Development. Why not again? The most important thing, "but there was no war?" "Do not let themselves be drawn" … Or is it the main thing – is it something else? "
(Statement of Alexander Dugin on his page on the social network Facebook )
Vladimir Kornilov, Ukrainian political scientist and director of the Center for Eurasian Studies:
"Leaders of the New Russia not associate themselves with Ukraine and are not going to integrate into its legal political field. However, in the future, anything is possible. For example, the leaders of the Irish Republican Army is also considered as the London terrorist attacks, but only for the time being. Today, the IRA’s political leaders sit in the British Parliament.
As for Russia, it is not recognizing the independence of the republics of the Donetsk and Lugansk, nevertheless recognizes their leaders as political entities, which can and should negotiate. I believe that such support from Moscow should be given more actively.
In case of defeat their militia leaders may move to Russia. When it comes to Russian citizens, such as Alexander Boroday, then I see no reason for which their political activities in Russia could be somehow limited. However, if they will be engaged in opposition activities a la Navalny, the authorities will come to them as well as with that character. Examples of Ukrainian politicians who tried to act in the political field in Russia, have already been. Mr. Meshkov, former president of the Crimea, went to his time in Russia, and especially not at first showed himself as a politician, but then began to manifest itself in terms of the Crimean policy. Now trying to organize something in Crimea already as part of Russia ".
Yevgeny Minchenko, Russian political scientist, Director of the International Institute of Political Expertise:
"Support leaders Novorossia provided by the Russian authorities, although it was not such a large-scale, as they say, our Western partners. Now, however, the motivation for such support Vladimir Putin and the entire Russian leadership seriously declined.
Not sure if the forced departure of the separatist leaders in Russia they will come here to the court. They can of course try to somehow play on the Russian political scene. There are, for example, the precedent of Armenia, where military victory Karabakh elite seized power in Yerevan and still holds it. But in Russia, the likelihood of such a development is significantly lower due primarily that the probability of a military victory of pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine less. And by themselves scale Donetsk and Lugansk enclaves on the background throughout Russia do not allow their leaders claim to any appreciable role in federal politics. "
[My personal translation – RD]
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